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Ashuri, B and Tavakolan, M (2012) Fuzzy Enabled Hybrid Genetic Algorithm–Particle Swarm Optimization Approach to Solve TCRO Problems in Construction Project Planning. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 138(09), 1065–74.

Choi, K, Son, K, Woods, P and Park, Y J (2012) LEED Public Transportation Accessibility and Its Economic Implications. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 138(09), 1095–102.

Dikmen, I, Birgonul, M T, Tah, J H M and Ozer, A H (2012) Web-Based Risk Assessment Tool Using Integrated Duration–Cost Influence Network Model. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 138(09), 1023–34.

Fong, P S W and Chen, L (2012) Governance of Learning Mechanisms: Evidence from Construction Firms. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 138(09), 1053–64.

Gilkey, D P, del Puerto, C L, Keefe, T, Bigelow, P, Herron, R, Rosecrance, J and Chen, P (2012) Comparative Analysis of Safety Culture Perceptions among HomeSafe Managers and Workers in Residential Construction. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 138(09), 1044–52.

Hajifathalian, K, Wambeke, B W, Liu, M and Hsiang, S M (2012) Effects of Production Control Strategy and Duration Variance on Productivity and Work in Process: Simulation-Based Investigation. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 138(09), 1035–43.

Liu, D, Sun, J, Zhong, D and Song, L (2012) Compaction Quality Control of Earth-Rock Dam Construction Using Real-Time Field Operation Data. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 138(09), 1085–94.

Moret, Y and Einstein, H H (2012) Experience in Expert Estimation of Probabilities and Correlations for Rail Line Construction. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 138(09), 1103–6.

Moret, Y and Einstein, H H (2012) Modeling Correlations in Rail Line Construction. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 138(09), 1075–84.

  • Type: Journal Article
  • Keywords: Correlation; Construction costs; Monte Carlo method; Case studies; Railroad tracks; Correlation; Construction costs; NORTA method; Monte Carlo method; Case studies;
  • ISBN/ISSN: 0733-9364
  • URL: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000507
  • Abstract:
    The total construction cost and time of projects are often overrun. It is known that when positive correlations between costs are disregarded, the range of possible total construction costs is underestimated. A model is needed to estimate the effect of correlations on the probability distributions of total cost and total time. Four cost–cost and one cost–time correlations in the construction of rail lines were identified, two of which were investigated in detail using a model applicable to the construction of any networked system. This paper presents the theoretical background of the model, the correlations occurring in rail line construction, and the analysis of the impact of such correlations in two case studies including several scenarios and one sensitivity analysis. The results clearly show that the standard deviation of the total cost increases with the magnitude of the correlation and, most importantly, it dramatically increases with the number of costs that are correlated; it also depends on the type of correlation matrix. Correlation between costs must be modeled to capture the wide range of the possible total cost; otherwise, the total construction cost of projects will continue being significantly underestimated.

Shewchuk, J P and Guo, C (2012) Panel Stacking, Panel Sequencing, and Stack Locating in Residential Construction: Lean Approach. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 138(09), 1006–16.

Son, K, Choi, K, Woods, P and Park, Y J (2012) Urban Sustainability Predictive Model Using GIS: Appraised Land Value versus LEED Sustainable Site Credits. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 138(09), 1107–12.

Xia, B, Chan, A, Molenaar, K and Skitmore, M (2012) Determining the Appropriate Proportion of Owner-Provided Design in Design-Build Contracts: Content Analysis Approach. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 138(09), 1017–22.